How the web might change campaigns in 2011 poll

From the election of Barack Obama to post-election violence in Iran, we have seen the enormous power of new technology, particularly social networking websites, to dramatically influence political processes. Ahead of a crucial presidential election in Cameroon in 2011, some Cameroonians are trying to take advantage of those same tools.

And the social networking site Facebook that played a key role in rallying Iranian protesters, appears to be the takeoff point.

At least two pre-2011 Facebook groups already exist: Le Nouveau Cameroon (LNC) is a political movement run from Paris by Cameroonian musician, writer and engineer Henri Georges Minyem, while Un Autre Cameroun en 2011 is an apolitical group run from Cameroon by journalist Thiéry Gervais Gango.
To what extent Facebook or any other social networking site can influence campaigns 2011 is hard to tell. The internet penetration rate in the country is still extremely low, compared to the US and Iran, though it is expected to jump to record levels by 2011. Even then, the kind of web culture that would develop would have a big role to play.

Nonetheless, the power of social networks cannot be taken for granted, not now that evidence of its strength is beginning to emerge. Last week, LNC claimed it had already hit an online membership of more than 1,500. Un Autre Cameroun en 2011 runs at least one new lively debate each day and is also growing in popularity.
Clearly, what this shows is that to a great extent, future political debates would not be taking place from rally grounds and podiums but on computer screens and cell phones.  It would be driven by a new generation of politicians  - young IT generation lads - and the voice of the Diaspora, which has so often been silenced, could become stronger.

Unfortunately, the Diaspora which will lead this evolution cannot vote as yet. But mainstream political players back home may find themselves on the fringes as this Diaspora becomes the main group responsible for shaping public opinion back home, especially among the younger segment of the population.